Live Markets — 6 Active Hunts

Every startup
makes promises.

Track which ones
deliver.

Bet on whether startups hit their targets. Revenue milestones. Headcount goals. Valuation rounds. Every market is a real company's stated objective.

Your capital. Their accountability.

Seed metrics dashboard
6 active markets · $157K traded

Active Markets

Browse real company milestones. Pick the ones worth watching.

Sort:
⚖️
Arcane AI
Series A AI
Will Arcane AI hit $10M ARR by Q4 2026?
YES %
62%
24h Change
📈 +3.1%
📚
Brightpath
Seed EdTech
Will Brightpath raise a Series A before EOY 2026?
YES %
58%
24h Change
📉 −1.2%
Lumen Labs
Series A Energy
Will Lumen Labs reach 200 employees by Q2 2027?
YES %
71%
24h Change
📈 +5.4%
🧬
Verdant Bio
Seed Biotech
Will Verdant Bio cross $1M ARR by Q3 2026?
YES %
44%
24h Change
📈 +2.8%
🎨
Prism Design
Series B SaaS
Will Prism Design close $15M Series B by Q1 2027?
YES %
51%
24h Change
📉 −0.8%
🔋
Northlight Energy
Seed Energy
Will Northlight Energy hit $500K MRR by Q4 2026?
YES %
67%
24h Change
📈 +1.9%

Three steps to climb the ranks

Pick the right companies. Win the glory.

1
🔍
Scout
Browse the Hunt Board. Every market is a company's stated milestone — revenue targets, headcount goals, funding rounds. Pick the ones worth watching.
2
🎯
Bet
Stake YES or NO on whether they'll hit their number. Every market opens at 50/50. The price moves as the crowd decides.
3
🏆
Climb
Win or lose. The market resolves when the milestone date passes. Climb The Ranks if you're right.

Company Spotlight

Companies tracking real milestones — and how the market's pricing them.

⚖️
Arcane AI
AI Legal Research · San Francisco, CA
$24M raised · Series A
Active: $10M ARR · Q4 2026
62%
3 milestones · 1 resolved · 100% hit
View Markets →
📚
Brightpath
EdTech Platform · Austin, TX
$4.2M raised · Seed
Active: Series A · EOY 2026
58%
2 milestones · 0 resolved
View Markets →
Lumen Labs
Clean Energy Software · Denver, CO
$18M raised · Series A
Active: 200 employees · Q2 2027
71%
1 milestone · 0 resolved
View Markets →
🧬
Verdant Bio
Biotech AI · Boston, MA
$2.8M raised · Seed
Active: $1M ARR · Q3 2026
44%
1 milestone · 0 resolved
View Markets →

The Ranks

The sharpest minds in startup prediction. Can you beat them?

# Handle Win Rate Profit Correct Streak
🥇 @oracle_vc · SF, CA 91% +$24,100 47 🔥 14
🥈 @contrarianAI · NYC, NY 86% +$18,700 38 🔥 9
🥉 @startupwhisperer · London, UK 83% +$14,300 29 🔥 7
4 @fundingguru · Austin, TX 79% +$11,900 22 🔥 5
5 @deepresearch · Berlin, DE 77% +$9,400 17 🔥 4

Closed Hunts

What the market predicted — and what actually happened.

Northlight Energy Seed
Will Northlight Energy reach $200K MRR by Q2 2026?
Closed at 71% YES · Resolved Jun 2026
Winners earned
+71%
Verdant Bio Seed
Will Verdant Bio reach $500K ARR by Q1 2026?
Closed at 53% YES · Resolved Mar 2026
Winners earned
+53%
Lumen Labs Series A
Will Lumen Labs hit $1M ARR by Q4 2025?
Closed at 61% YES · Resolved Dec 2025
NO paid
+61%
Arcane AI Series A
Will Arcane AI hit $5M ARR by Q1 2026?
Closed at 58% YES · Resolved Mar 2026
Winners earned
+58%

Founders: put your money where your mouth is.
Plant your milestone. Let the market rate your execution.
🎯
Public accountability
State your target. The market prices your credibility in real time.
📊
Early signal
See what the crowd thinks before investors do.
🏆
Build reputation
Hitting your milestones builds founder reputation. Missing them is public.
🌱
For Founders
Every promise deserves a deadline.
Companies that have raised $500K+ can plant their milestones. No customer required. Just traceable.

Read the Room

Analysis, deep dives, and contrarian takes on the companies you're betting on.

📊
Research
Why startup milestone markets beat equity research

Prediction markets aggregate real information faster than Wall Street analysts. Here's why.

Read time: 5 min  ·  Read →
📈
Analysis
The science of predicting ARR growth

Compound growth curves, seasonal dips, and why SaaS cohorts tell you everything about a startup.

Read time: 7 min  ·  Read →
🎯
Case Study
5 founders who nailed their milestones — and 3 who didn't

The difference between a company that delivers and one that doesn't often comes down to one thing.

Read time: 6 min  ·  Read →
View All Insights →

Fine Print (but not boring)

Betting on whether a company hits its numbers is about as risky as betting on whether your mate finishes their startup by Friday. Except Seed resolves cleanly.

We track public signals: funding announcements, LinkedIn headcount, press releases, job postings. If it got press, we can resolve it.

Any founder of a company that's raised $500K+. We verify company details. You don't need to be a Seed customer — just traceable.

TBD. We're figuring it out. Check back.

Yes, but for startups. And no insider trading. And the market is anchored to a company's stated goal. And it's actually fun.

We close the market on the milestone date and check the public record. Did they hit it? Yes or no. Clean.

Only by actually hitting their milestones. Which is the point.

Ready to hunt?

Join the waitlist. Get early access when we open the gates.

No spam. Just markets.

Markets are for entertainment only. Not financial advice.
Past performance ≠ future results. Bet responsibly.